Want to know the top three things that scare me?

The Top Three Disasters That Scare Me

As a prepper and a preparedness professional there are still things that scare me. Few things do, but there are some things that even if you’re prepared for can still be a nightmare. What are those three things? I’ll tell you.

1. A Pandemic (sorry but this one COVID-19 Isn’t it – I’ll explain why).
2. A HEMP (High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse).
3. Civil Unrest (Civil War).

Pandemic

Coronavirus

Yes, a pandemic scares me. I watched as this one unfolded in China and eventually spread around the globe. I watch China and other parts of Asia for potential outbreaks because throughout history, most of the diseases have started in China and Asia before spreading.

The good news – I saw this one coming as it was evident China was unable to control the spread. The Bad news – the official news coming out of China and the WHO (World Health Organization) was unreliable and untrust worthy.  The only thing I knew for certain was that there was no way SARS-CoV-2 wasn’t airborne and that it was being spread human-to-human during a time when both China and WHO denied this. I made this conjecture due to the amount of video evidence e leaking out of China.

With this I started asking polls on Twitter – (not exactly reliable, but I was able to get what I was looking for). I was mostly asking:

1. Have you made any changes to your routine based on the Coronavirus?
2. Has your company made any changes or implemented any pandemic planning based on the Coronavirus?

While not a scientific poll I can tell you this. Only a very small handful of respondents to the poll started changing up their own routines. And, zero respondents stated the organizations they worked at started implementing any changes. I asked these questions back on January 27, 2020. I also started asking how prepared you were for Supply Chain disruptions on this date.

On February 5^th I commented cracks in the global supply Chain were starting to show already. The next day, Qualcomm warned that the outbreak would impact the smartphone industry. Businesses like Nike, Adidas, and Tesla already reported that they were being impacted from China based exports of supplies.

China also invoked their Force-Majeure (unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract) contract clause on their LNG contracts and refused delivery.

As of January, 21^th the U.S. reported their first official confirmed case. Three days later January 24^th the U.S. confirmed its 2^nd known case. The point here is, I was one of the few people that watched this unfold from the beginning and I was telling people to dust off and look at their Pandemic Plans or get started creating one on January 22^nd.

One of the things that was hard to know (and still know) was the death toll or mortality rate coming out of China. There is still some disturbing information around this, such as the 2 million drop of Chinese phone subscribers. Phones are used for extensive tracking in China, including the need to access government resources like healthcare.

With the unconfirmed and unreliable data coming out of China it appeared that the mortality rate was high. This could still be the case, but it is nearly impossible to confirm at this point, and we may never know the truth when it comes to China.

What we did and do know now is, it spreads easily and quickly, and asymptomatic people can be infected and spread it without ever knowing they had it. But the mortality rate remains very low. Even if you are infected you have a better than 98% chance of surviving. It is this reason alone that I am not too worried about COVID-19.

It’s still too early to tell in the long-term if this will change. As there could be a significant mutation that makes it more deadly, or a second more significant wave causes an increased mortality rate. Though it is unlikely the disease will become more deadly.

Ultimately the reason why I said this isn’t the pandemic I fear is due to the low mortality rate. We don’t see vast amounts of people dying in the streets, hospitals are not overwhelmed, and funeral homes are not over-run. Granted in some places like NYC some of these things were seen, it was not the overall result around the United States. If these things were occurring the impact would have been far worse.

Unfortunately, we did have self-imposed government shutdowns lasting over what I would deem to be a long period. Initially the shutdowns along with a shelter in place were announced to be for fifteen days initially. Fifteen days turned into three months, and as I write this, some areas (including where I live) the shutdowns are being extended.

When this is over, this will likely be the biggest single disaster impacting the United States from an economic standpoint. We’ve already seen countless small businesses shut their doors permanently. Several large businesses that were already facing economic troubles also permanently closed or filed for bankruptcy protection to restructure.

Interestingly, it is known that when small businesses close for just ten days or longer, due to a disaster they tend to go out of business. Kind of makes you wonder doesn’t it?

HEMP or High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

Starfish Prime (Credit: Defense Atomic Agency)

The next event that scares me is the use of a HEMP device, Super-EMP, or even a large-scale solar flare causing a geomagnetic storm that impacts our atmosphere. Any of these three events would essentially have the same impact on the United States, which could result in the complete collapse of the electrical grid.

How likely is it? Great question. Well, if you research the Carrington Event from 1859 it will provide you a glimpse into the potential of what could happen to our highly connected, electrified world. In addition, there have been similar albeit smaller events that have impacted telecommunications and the Canadian electrical grid.

In addition to this natural phenomenon one of the side effects of setting of a nuclear weapon is an Electromagnetic Pulse that can both temporarily or permanently damage electrical devices and the electrical grid. The scary part is all it would take is just one, well placed and well-timed explosion of a nuclear device in the atmosphere above the United States to impact the entire Continental U.S.

There has been evidence of again the Chinese developing a super-EMP weapon. I have been hearing of them working with and paying North Korea to develop them as far back as late 2001. More recently however evidence suggests that the Chinese have satellites that they can utilize to the same effect. This gives the Chinese plausible first strike capability to take out the entire United States in one shot.

The impact would be devastating. The entire electrical grid would immediately shut down. No running water, No TV, Radio, No internet, No Gas. Anything electrical based would grind to a sudden halt. But that is just the beginning.

It is estimated that it could take several years before the electrical grid could be repaired to full working capacity again.

Why it scares me? A large swath of the population isn’t expected to survive, and the chaos would begin almost immediately. Certainly, on the first or second night.

NOTE: The similarities between the Coronavirus and Starfish Prime detonation is not lost on me. 

Civil Unrest

Civil unrest on a wide scale throughout the country is already happening. The Country is divided in several ways and both outside and internal actors are further influencing the certain factions increasing that divide.

While the potential for civil unrest (or more unlikely Civil War) has existed for some time several recent factors had increased the odds for it happening. First, due to the pandemic and subsequent shutdowns millions of people have lost their jobs, can’t meet their monthly bills, are facing difficulties buying enough food to feed their families, and increased stress.

Add to that real and perceived beliefs around, political differences, decline in long-held American values, earning and wage gaps, socialism vs capitalism, all the kindling was there. All it needed was the spark to kick things off.

It could have been nearly anything, but that is what we got with the death of George Floyd. No matter where you stand on any of the issues his death never should have happened. Even if he was actively resisting arrest and a carotid choke hold was warranted, there is zero excuse to do it to the point of death. That aside, the outcome is civil unrest and the movement has clearly been high jacked to an agenda that goes beyond policing issues.

It quickly moved to rioting, looting and wanton destruction of not just businesses but now threatens the basic fabric and building blocks of a nation. While no nation is perfect and has its problems and needs correcting from time to time, the future the socialist left wants will surely make things worse if it occurs.

In the end, it is not really the civil unrest itself that worries me, but the potential state that might rise if the so-called Democratic-Socialists and Marxism wins. It will end badly as it always does.

So, these are the three scenarios that scare me. What scenario(s) or disasters scare you?

Lessons From The 1918 Pandemic and Emerging Pandemic Threats

In light of the current pandemic of H1N1 (Swine Flu) and the spread of H5N1 (Avian Flu, or Bird Flu) I thought posting this video from TED on a presentation from Laurie Garrett on lessons from the 1918 flu.

The Video is actually from around April 2007 before the current out-break of H1N1 but can shed some light on a number of things and is worth taking the time to view.

This video highlights the main preparedness issues around pandemics and is more relevant today than it was when Laurie Garrett gave the presentation at TED in 2007.

Swine Flu (H1N1) Spreading Across Globe, Time for Business Planning Running Out

As Swine Flu continues to spread at a rapid pace, the window of opportunity for preparedness is closing fast as well.

Initially I was putting out preparedness information through my business/blog newsletter, however the situation has evolved rapidly enough that I thought it best to post some important information directly here on my blog.

First and foremost, if you run a business REVIEW or quickly develop a pandemic plan now, before it gets too late.

With that said, don’t panic, remain calm. There is no reason at this moment to not send your kids to school or stay home if you are not having symptoms. You can also not get the Swine Flu from eating pork.

Currently and for the first time, the WHO has increased its phase level of pandemic alert and changed the definitions of the phases; it is currently at Phase 4.

You can read more about the WHO Pandemic Phases on the WHO website, but here is the current definition of Phase 4:

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Breakdown of the new WHO definitions:

• Phase 1: No viruses circulating in animals that cause infections in humans
• Phase 2: Animal virus is circulating that is known to cause human infection
• Phase 3: Animal or human-animal reassortment virus causes sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people but not sustained community level outbreaks
• Phase 4: Verified human-to-human transmission of a virus that is able to cause community level outbreaks and marks a significant upward shift in the risk for a pandemic
• Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. This is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent
• Phase 6: Pandemic phase
• Post-peak: Pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance have dropped below peak levels
• Post-pandemic: Influenza disease activities has returned to levels normally associated with seasonal influenza

The current situation is extremely fluid and as of this posting a total of 64 cases have been confirmed inside the United States. I will not focus on cases outside the United States at this time, however you can find updates to this information by going to the CDC Swine Flu web page, it is currently updated once per day.

Recommendations:

• Communicate to your employees; review your plan with them.
• Consider sending out daily reminders, about proper hand washing, and proper sneezing and coughing techniques.
• Consider eliminating ALL business related travel to Mexico; utilize telecommunications, virtual meetings for business.
• If you considered implementing the prophylactic use of anti-virals, now is the time to review your plan. If you are considering them as an option, now is the time to sign up.
• Now is the time to consider telecommuting options for employees who can work from home, and getting them trained. Don’t wait allow them time to adjust so they will be ready if it becomes a must.
• Consider options for what telecommuting employees will do if working remotely fails. Many businesses are planning the same options. Reduced internet performance and even outages will be likely.
• Consider what to do if employees refuse to come in to work (from panic)
• Consider how to handle employees who may appear to be ill, but come to work anyway.

There will be many other options to consider.

Act now before it is too late.

If you need help planning for your business, have questions or concerns you can send me an email through my contact us page.

Or you can always call me directly on my business phone at:

877-565-TECH (8324)

H5N1 Genetic Diversity In Asian Chickens Surprises and Worries Team of Scientists

A team of Vietnamese and US scientists discovered that chickens seized at Vietnam's border with China in 2008 had a surprisingly diverse genetic make up of the H5N1 Virus.

Here is more detail directly from CIDRAP:

Apr 14, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – H5N1 influenza viruses found in chickens seized at Vietnam's border with China in 2008 show a surprising level of genetic diversity, suggesting that the viruses are evolving rapidly and raising questions about disease surveillance and the effectiveness of prepandemic H5N1 vaccines, according to a team of Vietnamese and US scientists.

The findings suggest that the subgroup of viruses identified in the study has been circulating in the region either undetected or unreported for a "considerable amount of time," the report says. The viruses are in clade 7, a group that has not been found in an outbreak since one in China's Shanxi province in 2006.

Also, given the degree of difference between these clade 7 viruses and those used to make human H5N1 vaccines, "it is unclear whether or not humoral antibodies elicited by current vaccine candidates will have cross-neutralization activity against the new viruses," says the report, published recently in Virology.

The study was conducted by scientists from Vietnam's National Center for Veterinary Diagnostics in Hanoi and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with the CDC's Ruben O. Donis as the senior author.

Vietnam bans the importation of poultry from H5N1-infected countries. The viruses analyzed in the study came from imported illegal chickens seized at border control stations in Vietnam's Lang Son province, on the Chinese border. Authorities confiscated 495 chickens at the border stations in the first 5 months of 2008 and tested them for avian flu. Fifteen birds were found infected with H5N1 virus, and two others had an H9N2 virus.

The authors extracted RNA from the 15 H5N1 isolates, amplified it, and analyzed the sequence of the hemagglutinin (HA) genes. They found that all 15 HA genes fit within a subgroup of previously identified clade 7 viruses. They determined that 13 of the 15 HA genes fell into two further subgroups, which they labeled A and B.

The isolates within groups A and B were very closely related, but the groups differed considerably from each other, with an average divergence of 4.05% in HA nucleotide sequences and 5.69% in amino acid sequences, the report says. The authors also determined that the isolates differed by an average of 3.67% and 5.81% from the most closely related previous clade 7 isolate, which came from a chicken in China's Shanxi province in 2006.

In comparing the viruses with representatives of other H5N1 clades, the investigators found they were most closely related a clade 4 virus (a 2006 isolate from Guiyang province of China) and most distantly related to a clade 1 virus, a 2004 isolate from Vietnam. The respective differences in amino acid sequences were 8.20% and 9.07%.

The genetic distance between the HAs of these clade 7 viruses and the isolates used to make prepandemic vaccines raises doubt as to whether antibodies generated by the vaccines would react with the clade 7 viruses, the authors write. They say the viruses used in the vaccines represent clade 1 (from Vietnam, 2004), clade 2.1.3 (Indonesia, 2005), clade 2.2 (Qinghai province, China, 2005), and clade 2.3.4 (Anhui province, China, 2005).

The authors used ferret serum samples to test whether antibodies generated against five of the clade 7 viruses would cross-react with viruses from other clades and vice versa. Using hemagglutination inhibition assays, they found that samples (antisera) with antibodies against clades 1 and 2.3.4 did not cross-react with a clade 7 virus, and antisera against that same clade 7 virus did not react with clade 1 and clade 2.3.4 viruses. Also, antisera to the clade 7 virus showed limited cross-reactivity with each of four other clade 7 isolates, suggesting "some, albeit minimal" antigenic similarity among the viruses.

The authors write that the identification of two distinct subgroups (groups A and B) of clade 7 viruses "may suggest that these viruses originated from two distinct regions or host populations isolated from each other."

They say the isolates they analyzed were remarkably diverse, given that other studies of H5N1 viruses in a single clade have shown a nucleotide divergence of no more than 1.5%. They also observe, "The high degree of genetic divergence from previously identified clade 7 viruses also indicates that this subgroup of viruses has likely been circulating undetected or unreported for a considerable amount of time as poultry outbreaks caused by clade 7 H5N1 viruses were last reported in Shanxi province, China in 2006."

The findings point up the need for border controls and strong virologic surveillance to detect and prevent the spread of "exotic" H5N1 viruses from country to country, the authors conclude.

Dr. Les Sims of Australia's Asia-Pacific Veterinary Information Services called the study "an important piece of work" that offers another sign of gaps in avian flu surveillance systems in Asia.

"Unexplained gaps in the evolution of H5N1 virus HA genes suggest that surveillance systems have not been able to detect all cases of infection," Sims, who is a consultant to the United National Food and Agriculture Organization, told CIDRAP News by e-mail.

Other signs of holes in surveillance efforts include the detection of H5N1 virus in humans before finding it in nearby poultry, finding the virus in intermittent testing in poultry markets, and infected dead poultry washing up on Hong Kong's beaches, Sims said.

Clade 7 viruses have been found in various places in China, including Shanxi, Yunnan, and Hebei provinces, he reported, adding, "One of the recent human cases in Jiangsu was apparently due to a clade 7 virus, based on newspaper reports."

"The antigenic variation is not surprising given that clade 7 viruses have been shown to be antigenic variants previously," Sims said. But the findings from the ferret sera should be tested further with challenge trials in poultry vaccinated with existing vaccines, he added.

The difference between a 2006 clade 7 virus found in China—cited in the study as the closest previously identified relative of the viruses the authors analyzed—and existing vaccine antigens "led to the incorporation of a new antigen into some Chinese poultry vaccines," he said. "These vaccines containing a clade 7 antigen have been used extensively in China." He added that there have been no reports of vaccine failures in Vietnam resulting from antigenic variants.

Sims said the antigenic changes in the clade 7 virus might potentially have been spurred by poultry vaccination efforts. "We need to balance measures to reduce the amount of circulating virus, which vaccination of poultry can do, against the potential 'harm' that might occur if antigenic variants emerge," he stated. "We should expect antigenic variants to emerge and ensure that appropriate measures are in place to detect these at an early stage."

Nguyen T, Davis CT, Stembridge W, et al. Characterization of a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus sublineage in poultry seized at ports of entry into Vietnam. Virology 2009 (early online publication) [Abstract]

This finding further illustrates the importance for pandemic planning, the likely hood of such a thing happening in our lifetime is increasing.

Teenager In China Fourth Case of Bird Flu This Month

A 16-year-old boy in Hunan province is the fourth confirmed case of H5N1 (Avian Flu) to be confirmed in China since the beginning of 2009. Two of the cases were fatal.

A flu expert at China's National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shu Yuelong, said new infections were likely because the H5N1 virus is more active in lower temperatures, and he stated that "With the Lunar New Year approaching, the volume of trade of live poultry is growing, and the risk of the emergence and spread of an epidemic is increasing."

While the disease remains hard for humans to catch — with most cases linked to contact with infected birds — scientists have warned that if outbreaks among poultry are not controlled, the virus may mutate into a form more easily passed between people.

Human-to-human transmission of bird flu has happened about a dozen times in the past, in countries including China, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Turkey. In nearly every case, transmission has occurred among blood relatives who have been in close contact, and the virus has not spread into the wider community.

Of the 34 cases confirmed to date in China, 22 have been fatal.